The House-passed and Senate-proposed 2025 budget reconciliation bills each include provisions that significantly alter the Inflation Reduction Act’s tech-neutral clean energy tax credits, particularly sections 45Y and 48E. To assess the impact, we developed custom deployment models to represent the provisions of currently proposed bill language, which was then modeled in the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) by Energy Innovation to estimate net economic impacts at the national level.

Over ten years, the Senate-proposed rollbacks of tech-neutral tax credits would cost:

• 1.6 million jobs

• $190 billion in lost wages

• $280 billion in lost GDP

These losses are relative to a scenario where tech-neutral tax credits remain fully in place. The Senate-proposed language is slightly more favorable for future tax credit uptake than House-passed text, due to differences in sunset timetables and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) requirement. The Senate-proposed language proposes more favorable tax credit timetables for grid-firming technologies such as nuclear, geothermal, and hydropower.